If 12,272 homes are planned for the former Concord Naval Weapons Station, should a buyer wait for that supply to show up? The best answer is in the deal itself. In September, the U.S. Navy approved the term sheet that sets the price and payment terms for about 2,422 acres of the base. The document is about money, but it also works as a calendar. It puts the first land transfer in 2030 and starts the larger payments in 2033. Any buyer comparing Concord with other East Bay cities this winter is competing for homes that already exist.
The Dates in the Deal
The most useful part of the agreement is its dates. Here is the sequence, based on the City of Concord's announcement of the Navy's approval and the May 2026 staff report summary from Contra Costa News.
| Milestone | Timing |
|---|---|
| City Council, sitting as the Local Reuse Authority, considers the Navy term sheet | May 26, 2026 |
| Navy executes the term sheet | September 23, 2026 |
| Specific Plan work begins, led by Brookfield | This winter |
| Additional community engagement | Early 2027 |
| Specific Plan expected before City Council | Summer 2029 |
| Initial transfer of roughly 1,000 acres, $4.6 million deposit | 2030 |
| Four $10 million payments plus interest for Phase 1 to 3 land | 2033 through 2036 |
| Full build-out across five phases | Roughly 30 years |
The total Navy price comes to $44.6 million. Interest on the deferred payments accrues from the date of the initial transfer, at the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate on that date plus 150 basis points. Later phases follow a different formula. The Navy takes 10% of gross land proceeds from Phase 4 transfers, 12% from Phase 5, and half of the city's share of profit in any phase where Brookfield's internal rate of return goes above 18%. If the project performs to plan, the staff report estimates the Navy receives about $628 million over the build-out.
This structure means the Navy collects most of its money only after land moves and development happens. The guaranteed payments don't start until 36 months after the first transfer.
Why Phase 1 Got Lighter Before It Got Started
The Navy's price wasn't known when Brookfield's original term sheet was accepted in 2024. To fit the price and keep the project financially workable, the city and Brookfield moved several obligations to later phases. The revised Brookfield term sheet moves these items:
- The Evora Road connection from Port Chicago to Mt. Diablo Creek, plus the Diablo Creek Golf Course repair, moves from Phase 1 to Phase 2
- The Evora Road bridge at Mt. Diablo Creek and the Kinne Culvert move to Phase 2
- A potable water storage reservoir of roughly 1.65 million gallons moves to Phase 2
- The $5 million Phase 1 contribution to the Tournament Sports Park merges into Phase 2, for a $20 million contribution there, out of $100 million for the park overall
- The 4-acre veterans land set-aside moves from Phase 1 to Phase 3
- Repayment of the city's $15 million loan to the project moves from Phase 1 to Phase 3
The staff report says the loan deferral improves the fiscal integrity of Phase 1, "which incurs significant up-front infrastructure costs." In other words, the first phase has to pay for roads, utilities and site work before it can produce homes. The deal does open one early door. A Lease in Furtherance of Conveyance would hand security and maintenance of the property to the city, funded by the master developer, no later than 2030. That lease allows pre-development work such as wetlands creation and infrastructure installation before the land formally transfers.
The core commitments stayed the same: 12,272 homes, 25% affordable housing, 6 million square feet of commercial space, and 868 acres of local parks, paths and bikeways. The plan also still sets aside 16 acres for permanently supportive housing and 10 acres for Food Bank expansion.
A Schedule That Has Already Slipped Once
The project has a long history. The station opened in 1944 as a munitions storage facility, fell out of use in 1999, and was marked for redevelopment by the city in 2006. Lennar was selected as master developer in 2016 and withdrew in 2020. Brookfield was chosen in 2023, as Local News Matters reported.
Brookfield's exclusive negotiating agreement set a four-year schedule to finish the Navy talks, the Specific Plan and the Disposition and Development Agreement by March 2028. The Navy negotiations ran long, and the staff report estimates another 19 months will be needed to reach final approvals. Add 19 months to March 2028 and you get late 2029. That fits the summer 2029 date Guy Bjerke, then the city's director of economic development and base reuse, gave the council in May, when he told members the project was "still years away," according to Local News Matters. Bjerke retired at the end of September after 11 years in the role.
The same goes for the regional park next door. The East Bay Regional Park District lists Thurgood Marshall Regional Park – Home of the Port Chicago 50 as closed to the public, apart from occasional tours and events.
What Concord Has to Sell While It Waits
With the base out of the picture for years, the question becomes how much new construction exists elsewhere in Concord. The answer is very little.
Trumark's Penny Lane, a 70-townhome community near downtown Concord, sold out in August 2025. The next known project is much smaller. At 5291 Concord Blvd., near Kirker Pass and next to Crossroads Church, the round house came down this spring to make room for about 40 homes on a five-acre site, Claycord reported in April. The site is zoned for single-family homes on lots of at least 10,000 square feet. The city has granted a vesting tentative map, a planned development use permit, design and site review, and a tree removal permit.
Forty large-lot homes won't take much pressure off a city of Concord's size. Through at least the end of this decade, nearly every Concord purchase will be a resale.
What the Resale Market Looks Like Right Now
Contra Costa County numbers give the closest current picture. In September 2026, the county's median sold price for existing single-family homes was $870,000, up 0.1% from September 2025, according to the California Association of REALTORS®. The same report shows 2.7 months of unsold inventory and a median of 19 days on market. Statewide, existing single-family sales in September ran 6.5% below the year before, and C.A.R. pointed to higher borrowing costs and affordability as the reasons.
Closer to Concord, MLS figures for the Central Contra Costa group of Concord, Pleasant Hill, Walnut Creek and Martinez put the January-through-September 2026 median at $818,000, up 3% from $797,000 over the same months of 2025, with homes averaging 29 days on market.
Taken together, sales slowed this fall while county prices held flat and homes sold within a few weeks. Fewer transactions without falling prices usually means fewer sellers, not weaker demand. Large new supply would shift that balance, and the term sheet places it years away.
Questions to Bring to a Concord Search This Winter
Since the base's effect on supply is a long-range question, a few near-term questions are more useful:
- How close is the home to the reuse area, and how long do you plan to own it? A buyer planning to stay 10 years or more may live through the Specific Plan hearings, the 2030 transfer and the first phase of construction. A buyer planning a five-year stay may see little beyond the planning stage.
- Which road and park commitments sit in which phase? The Evora Road bridge, the Kinne Culvert and most of the Tournament Sports Park funding are now in Phase 2. Anyone weighing future access or amenities near the base should check the current phase assignments at concordreuseproject.org.
- Are you comparing this home with the right alternatives? With Penny Lane sold out and the Concord Blvd. project still to come, a new-construction search in Concord will turn up few options. Comparing resale homes against each other gives a more realistic picture.
Quick Answers
Is the 12,272-home plan still the plan? Yes. The May 2026 revisions kept the unit count and the 25% affordable commitment from the 2012 Area Plan.
When can the public weigh in? The city says Specific Plan work starts this winter, with more community engagement planned for early 2027. Updates are posted at concordreuseproject.org.
What happens to the rest of the 5,038 acres? Land outside the roughly 2,422 acres Brookfield will develop has been or will be transferred at no cost to the East Bay Regional Park District or Contra Costa County.
If you're deciding between buying in Concord now and waiting for the weapons station, City 1st Realty can help you price today's resale options against your timeline and map out financing. Our team handles the purchase, the loan and the property management, so you can plan around 2030 with real numbers instead of guesses. Work with Us.
